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The results are in and it looks like search results were a relatively accurate predictor of the winners of primaries in Adams County.
Will Tallman, who led Mike Rishel most of the way, came out on top with a voting edge of 3,363 to 2,766. He will face a Democrat, Neil Clifford, in the general election to replace retiring state Rep. Steve Nickol in the 193rd district.
Rich Alloway emerged victorious in the four-way GOP race to replace retiring state Sen. Terry Punt. Jim Taylor came in second, despite lagging behind everyone in search results. But — and I should have noted this earlier even though the numbers seemed too small to mention — Taylor had the most people (three) click through here to his campaign web site. Cathy Cresswell, the third-place finisher, had two click-throughs.
At any rate, here are the final results for the 33rd Senate district: Rich Alloway: 9,266; Jim Taylor: 8,933; Cathy Cresswell: 7,728; Bob Curley: 1,379. Alloway dominated in Franklin County while Cresswell rocked Adams. See county-by-county results here.
Curley, of course, switched parties and ran as a Democratic write-in candidate. The Adams County courthouse lists 2,390 write-in votes by Democrats in the 33rd but doesn’t give any names. There were 3,393 Democratic write-in votes in Franklin County, but again no names are attached. York County Democrats added another 357 votes for a total of 6,137. Were they all for Curley? I guess we’ll know eventually.
Why wait 24 hours when you can have a prediction on tomorrow’s election tonight? On the eve of the most-hyped PA primary in history, I’m posting the local Adams County candidates whose names drew the most searchers to this particular blog both for the entire spring and for the last seven days. Look for an explanation of this exercise here.
There is an interesting difference in the results depending on how far back you look, suggesting that Rich Alloway could be riding to victory on a wave of momentum. If I were you, I would trust the results from the shorter time frame more than the results from all time. WordPress seems to leave some searches out of the latter, creating odd fluctuations.
So, here are the results for all time:
For Terry Punt’s Senate seat:
- Cathy Cresswell: 26
- Rich Alloway: 23
- Bob Curley: 12
- Jim Taylor: 8
For Nickol’s House seat:
- Will Tallman: 25
- Mike Rishel:7
And here are the results for the last seven days…
For Punt’s Senate seat:
- Rich Alloway: 13
- Cathy Cresswell: 12
- Bob Curley:10
- Jim Taylor:8
For Nickol’s House seat:
- Will Tallman: 24
- Mike Rishel:5
Tallman is way ahead on the House side no matter how you slice it. On the Senate side, Alloway is up by one over the last week. But one person on Saturday was searching under “pa state senate democrat primary alloway.” Is it possible that Alloway supporters are encouraging Democrats to write in his name in a bid to block Curley’s write-in bid? Hmmm. I thought politics was supposed to be fair.
Will online searches turn into real votes? Tune in tomorrow to find out!
Here’s your Sunday night update on state legislative races in Adams County. The numbers show how many times someone searching a candidate’s name has landed on this page. I’ve already acknowledged the survey’s lack of precision. I’m simply curious whether there’ll be any correlation between these numbers and actual votes on April 22.
In the Senate race to replace Terry Punt, Rich Alloway is closing the gap with Cathy Cresswell. Bob Curley remains a strong third, and thus a likely viable write-in candidate on the Democratic side. Jim Taylor is a distant fourth. Will Tallman maintains a commanding lead over Mike Rishel in the race to replace Steve Nickol
For Punt’s Senate seat:
- Cathy Cresswell: 23
- Rich Alloway: 22
- Bob Curley: 13
- Jim Taylor: 8
For Nickol’s House seat:
- Will Tallman: 14
- Mike Rishel: 2
Some searches combine names (eg “cresswell senate alloway”) and those are included in the total searches for each candidate.
The York Daily Record provides a nice summary of the candidates running to replace Terry Punt. Here’s a story about the House race for Steve Nickol’s seat.
I plan to update my search results on the candidates on Sunday night and again on Monday night before the election itself. In short, I’m trying to determine which candidate is most popular based on how many online searches land on this page. It’s far from scientific. But, hey. I’m curious to see if searches line up with vote results.
I fear I may be skewing the search results simply by measuring them. But that’s a risk I can live with since I doubt any candidates are living or dying by the numbers I post here. If you are, let me know.
With one week to go until real votes are cast, we have a new leader in search requests for the state Senate race to replace Terry Punt. Cathy Cresswell has overtaken Rich Alloway for the lead. Jim Taylor also made it onto the board, finally, but Bob Curley stayed ahead of him for third, suggesting his write-in campaign as a Democrat is getting traction.
In the race to succeed Steve Nickol, Will Tallman extended his lead. More people are looking for him than his opponent, Mike Rishel. One person was looking for “pa primaries state representatives mike.”
For Punt’s Senate seat:
- Cathy Cresswell:15*
- Rich Alloway: 12*
- Bob Curley: 6
- Jim Taylor: 3*
For Nickol’s House seat:
- Will Tallman:8
- Mike Rishel: 1
* Three searches combined Cresswell and Alloway into a single search. I added three to each candidate’s total. Another search combined Alloway and Taylor. They each get one as a result.
So it looks like Cresswell is pulling ahead of Alloway. Tallman, who previously ran and lost against Nickol, is on pace to win this time. Or not.
Let’s bring some of the online horse race to Adams County, Pa. politics.
People searching online for local candidates often stumble onto this site. I’ve written a bit about local races, solely in the context of yard signage. The chief contests are to replace two retiring GOP lawmakers, Sen. Terry Punt and Rep. Steve Nickol. I added up the numbers to determine the most-searched replacement candidates as of today, and it’s bad news for Jim Taylor:
For Punt’s seat:
- Rich Alloway: 11*
- Cathy Cresswell:10*
- Bob Curley: 1
- Jim Taylor: 0
For Nickol’s seat:
- Will Tallman: 4
- Mike Rishel: 1
* Three searches combined Cresswell and Alloway into a single search. I added three to each candidate’s total
Now, a killjoy statistician would argue that my sample is completely unrepresentative — and far too small, to boot. It only includes searchers who bothered to click onto my site. So what? It’s not like people following these races online have tons of material to wade through. So, the fact that they — you — wind up here indicates a higher level of enthusiasm and potentially translates into support at the polls.
So, you can wait until the primary is over in two weeks. But I’m ready to call this thing now: Alloway is your next state senator and Tallman is your next state representative — subject to any change in the numbers between now and April 22.
The presidential yard-sign count along Route 30 in central PA is holding steady at one sign for Obama and zero signs for Clinton. I guess everyone was too busy registering voters to put up many signs over the weekend.
Or perhaps there is little interest in the Democratic presidential contest among denizens of the Lincoln Highway. Other contests (all Republican) have yielded a forest of signs.
Signs for Republican PA legislative candidate Mike Rishel had been popping up slowly. Now they are everywhere, slowly being matched by his primary opponent, Will Tallman, who appears to have a large family.
A third GOP candidate for state senate, Jim Taylor, also is gaining ground. Nonetheless, he is still running far behind his rivals, Rich Alloway and Cathy Cresswell. Taylor’s support seems centered in New Oxford, while Alloway and Cresswell appear to own the rest of Adams County toward Gettysburg.
The Evening Keel 