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It appears that Democrats in Adams and Franklin county have an online edge. They’re pushing Dem Bruce Tushingham out in front of Republican Rich Alloway in this Internet poll I set up many moons ago. I don’t quite understand the results, but it seems Tushingham has support of 65% versus 10.3% for Alloway. Both are running for a state Senate seat, to replace retiring Terry Punt, a Republican.

I haven’t seen many yard signs yet, but then again, I’m not driving regularly on Route 30 between York and Gettysburg. That, after all, is the other important metric in this race. Oh, and so is the overwhelming advantage in voter registration enjoyed by the GOP. I wonder if that will make a difference in the fall…

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Democrtat Bruce Tushingham has pulled ahead of Republican Rich Alloway in the only vote that matters, at least for until November. I set up a survey at this site here and the vote so far clearly favors Tushingham. There’s only been one vote, of course. But it’s a long, long way to to election day…So vote now and vote again later…

We have a winner in the 33rd Senate district’s write-in campaign on the Democratic side: It’s Bruce Tushingham, a retired teacher from New Oxford. According to the Chambersburg Public Opinion and other sources, Tushingham collected more than 1.600 votes. Rich Alloway, who won the Republican primary, came in second with 1,200 votes. Bob Curley, Jim Taylor and Cathy Cresswell, the three other candidates in the GOP primary, each took about 600 votes.

Alloway and Tushingham will have some company in Green Party candidate Andy Johnson. I hesitate to make a prediction in this race, but something tells me Alloway has a pretty good shot.

Today is when election officials in Adams and Franklin Counties plan to have write-in results from last week’s primary. We’ll know if Bob Curley was successful in his bid as a Democratic write-in for the 33rd PA Senate district. If anyone sees the results elsewhere and cares enough to let me know, please pass them along.  An Adams County official told me yesterday they wouldn’t post the results online, which seems a touch outdated. But oh well.

Write-ins accounted for nearly 6,200 votes in the 33rd. Some were for the usual Disney slate of Mickey Mouse and Donald Duck, but I’m sure Bob Curley raked in some supporters of his own.

 

The results are in and it looks like search results were a relatively accurate predictor of the winners of primaries in Adams County.

Will Tallman, who led Mike Rishel most of the way, came out on top with a voting edge of 3,363 to 2,766. He will face a Democrat, Neil Clifford, in the general election to replace retiring state Rep. Steve Nickol in the 193rd district.

Rich Alloway emerged victorious in the four-way GOP race to replace retiring state Sen. Terry Punt. Jim Taylor came in second, despite lagging behind everyone in search results. But — and I should have noted this earlier even though the numbers seemed too small to mention — Taylor had the most people (three) click through here to his campaign web site. Cathy Cresswell, the third-place finisher, had two click-throughs.

At any rate, here are the final results for the 33rd Senate district: Rich Alloway: 9,266; Jim Taylor: 8,933; Cathy Cresswell: 7,728; Bob Curley: 1,379. Alloway dominated in Franklin County while Cresswell rocked Adams. See county-by-county results here.

Curley, of course, switched parties and ran as a Democratic write-in candidate. The Adams County courthouse lists 2,390 write-in votes by Democrats in the 33rd but doesn’t give any names. There were 3,393 Democratic write-in votes in Franklin County, but again no names are attached. York County Democrats added another 357 votes for a total of 6,137. Were they all for Curley? I guess we’ll know eventually.

Why wait 24 hours when you can have a prediction on tomorrow’s election tonight? On the eve of the most-hyped PA primary in history, I’m posting the local Adams County candidates whose names drew the most searchers to this particular blog both for the entire spring and for the last seven days. Look for an explanation of this exercise here.

There is an interesting difference in the results depending on how far back you look, suggesting that Rich Alloway could be riding to victory on a wave of momentum. If I were you, I would trust the results from the shorter time frame more than the results from all time. WordPress seems to leave some searches out of the latter, creating odd fluctuations.

So, here are the results for all time:

For Terry Punt’s Senate seat:

  1. Cathy Cresswell: 26
  2. Rich Alloway: 23
  3. Bob Curley: 12
  4. Jim Taylor: 8

For Nickol’s House seat:

  1. Will Tallman: 25
  2. Mike Rishel:7

And here are the results for the last seven days…

For Punt’s Senate seat:

  1. Rich Alloway: 13
  2. Cathy Cresswell: 12
  3. Bob Curley:10
  4. Jim Taylor:8

For Nickol’s House seat:

  1. Will Tallman: 24
  2. Mike Rishel:5

Tallman is way ahead on the House side no matter how you slice it. On the Senate side, Alloway is up by one over the last week. But one person on Saturday was searching under “pa state senate democrat primary alloway.” Is it possible that Alloway supporters are encouraging Democrats to write in his name in a bid to block Curley’s write-in bid? Hmmm. I thought politics was supposed to be fair.

Will online searches turn into real votes? Tune in tomorrow to find out!

The York Daily Record provides a nice summary of the candidates running to replace Terry Punt. Here’s a story about the House race for Steve Nickol’s seat.

I plan to update my search results on the candidates on Sunday night and again on Monday night before the election itself. In short, I’m trying to determine which candidate is most popular based on how many online searches land on this page. It’s far from scientific. But, hey. I’m curious to see if searches line up with vote results.

I fear I may be skewing the search results simply by measuring them. But that’s a risk I can live with since I doubt any candidates are living or dying by the numbers I post here. If you are, let me know.

With one week to go until real votes are cast, we have a new leader in search requests for the state Senate race to replace Terry Punt. Cathy Cresswell has overtaken Rich Alloway for the lead. Jim Taylor also made it onto the board, finally, but Bob Curley stayed ahead of him for third, suggesting his write-in campaign as a Democrat is getting traction.

In the race to succeed Steve Nickol, Will Tallman extended his lead. More people are looking for him than his opponent, Mike Rishel. One person was looking for “pa primaries state representatives mike.”

For Punt’s Senate seat:

  1. Cathy Cresswell:15*
  2. Rich Alloway: 12*
  3. Bob Curley: 6
  4. Jim Taylor: 3*

For Nickol’s House seat:

  1. Will Tallman:8
  2. Mike Rishel: 1

* Three searches combined Cresswell and Alloway into a single search. I added three to each candidate’s total. Another search combined Alloway and Taylor. They each get one as a result.

So it looks like Cresswell is pulling ahead of Alloway. Tallman, who previously ran and lost against Nickol, is on pace to win this time. Or not.

Let’s bring some of the online horse race to Adams County, Pa. politics.

People searching online for local candidates often stumble onto this site. I’ve written a bit about local races, solely in the context of yard signage. The chief contests are to replace two retiring GOP lawmakers, Sen. Terry Punt and Rep. Steve Nickol. I added up the numbers to determine the most-searched replacement candidates as of today, and it’s bad news for Jim Taylor:

For Punt’s seat:

  1. Rich Alloway: 11*
  2. Cathy Cresswell:10*
  3. Bob Curley: 1
  4. Jim Taylor: 0

For Nickol’s seat:

  1. Will Tallman: 4
  2. Mike Rishel: 1

* Three searches combined Cresswell and Alloway into a single search. I added three to each candidate’s total

Now, a killjoy statistician would argue that my sample is completely unrepresentative — and far too small, to boot. It only includes searchers who bothered to click onto my site. So what? It’s not like people following these races online have tons of material to wade through. So, the fact that they — you — wind up here indicates a higher level of enthusiasm and potentially translates into support at the polls.

So, you can wait until the primary is over in two weeks. But I’m ready to call this thing now: Alloway is your next state senator and Tallman is your next state representative — subject to any change in the numbers between now and April 22.

I wonder if this kind of switch would be sanctioned by Rush Limbaugh, strategic manager of Operation Chaos: PA state Senate candidate Bob Curley is jumping from Republican to Democrat in hopes the other party’s voters will write him in. It’s interesting that the local story doesn’t mention whether any actual Dems are on the ballot. Given the near impossibility of a Democrat winning in November, I’m guessing the answer is no.

Curley is one of the candidates I’m watching in the yard-count sign for the Lincoln Highway. He’s doing pretty well in that particular category. But his party crossover suggests he doesn’t think he can win the primary.