Observers have fingered a bunch of stats to determine who is leading in the presidential primary: Google searches, Facebook friends, Eventful demands, YouTube views, whatever. I have my own metric now to forecast who will win the Democratic primary in Pennsylvania on April 22: Yard signs along the 25-mile stretch of Route 30, the old Lincoln Highway, between Gettysburg and York.

The detail-minded might point out that this geographic slice of the Keystone State is in no way representative of anything. I agree. It is probably whiter, older and more rural-working class than the state as a whole. True. But there also are pockets of Hispanics in New Oxford and Abbottstown as well as a coffee shop in New Oxford– just the type of place Obama supporters apparently like to meet (business reporters take note).

If there actually are any Democrats in this part of the state, they probably support Clinton. So, the appearance of any signs for Obama can be construed as a positive indicator: he is making inroads into parts of the electorate that have been less fervent in supporting him.
So, without further ado, here is the count as of 1:16pm on March 11:

Hillary Clinton: 1

Barack Obama: 0

The Clinton sign appeared on a flat part of Route 30 west of the York Airport. Yes, York has an airport. The sign was on the south side of the road.