Netroots Nation, PA Dutch-style

It appears that Democrats in Adams and Franklin county have an online edge. They’re pushing Dem Bruce Tushingham out in front of Republican Rich Alloway in this Internet poll I set up many moons ago. I don’t quite understand the results, but it seems Tushingham has support of 65% versus 10.3% for Alloway. Both are running for a state Senate seat, to replace retiring Terry Punt, a Republican.

I haven’t seen many yard signs yet, but then again, I’m not driving regularly on Route 30 between York and Gettysburg. That, after all, is the other important metric in this race. Oh, and so is the overwhelming advantage in voter registration enjoyed by the GOP. I wonder if that will make a difference in the fall…

Signs of Spring (6)

Hillary Clinton may be slipping in the polls in Pennsylvania. But she has surged ahead in the “Count of Presidential Yard Signs along Route 30 between Gettysburg and York, Pa.“

Clinton supporters have put up three signs, all between Gettysburg and New Oxford. Obama is still at one sign. That puts her in the lead at 3-1 and suggests she may be the great closer that Ed Rendell has made her out to be.

Maybe Obama’s supporters can’t let go of their guns or religion long enough to put up signs.

UPDATE: This afternoon I saw a fourth Clinton sign, giving her a 4-1 edge. The fourth sign was on the east side of Abbottstown.

McCain’t

It baffles me that John McCain can’t scrounge up at least one supporter to post a yard sign along Route 30 between York and Gettysburg, Pa. It’s not like people aren’t enthusiastic about the April 22 primary. I see tons of signs for local races and a bunch for Ron Paul. And it’s not like people aren’t overwhelmingly Republican. Every single sign for the local races is from a GOP candidate. In fact, the only Democrat with a sign on that stretch of highway is Barack Obama. He has one.

I do see a few McCain signs elsewhere in Central PA, but there are none along that 20+ miles, suggesting he may have the same problems as Obama in appealing to white, rural, working class voters. It’s telling that both Obama and McCain seem to be media favorites. They both appeal to college-educated types who believe — a bit too smugly, perhaps — in their own independence. Conservative folks may respect McCain for his military service — who doesn’t? — but his political views may be too hard for some to swallow.

I used to think conservative Republicans who disagreed with McCain would vote for him anyway. But I’m less sure of that as time goes on. I just don’t see the sort of enthusiasm that will bring out the reluctant on election day. That makes McCain vulnerable to a third-party challenge from the right, even if it’s not Ron Paul.

Crossover vehicle

I wonder if this kind of switch would be sanctioned by Rush Limbaugh, strategic manager of Operation Chaos: PA state Senate candidate Bob Curley is jumping from Republican to Democrat in hopes the other party’s voters will write him in. It’s interesting that the local story doesn’t mention whether any actual Dems are on the ballot. Given the near impossibility of a Democrat winning in November, I’m guessing the answer is no.

Curley is one of the candidates I’m watching in the yard-count sign for the Lincoln Highway. He’s doing pretty well in that particular category. But his party crossover suggests he doesn’t think he can win the primary.

Signs of Spring (5)

Barack Obama finally has some company along Route 30 between York and Gettysburg. It’s Ron Paul. The longshot Republican has a single sign up near the York airport. That’s somewhat odd, as Paul signs usually pop up in clumps of three or four. There must be about half a dozen Paul signs lining ramps for the I-83 split near Harrisburg.

Don’t laugh. Paul is still on the PA ballot. He may even do better here than his customary 4% of the GOP vote.

So, Paul edges out John McCain 1-0, while Obama maintains his 1-0 lead over Hillary Clinton in the official “Count of Presidential Yard Signs Along Route 30 between Gettysburg and York.”

As has been the case throughout this unprecedented primary season for PA, local races are getting all the attention. I’ve even spotted a new entrant in the state Senate race, restaurant owner Robert “Bob” Curley, also a Republican.

Curley appears to be lagging his rivals in fundraising, but he’s catching up in signage. Over the weekend about a dozen signs appeared with his name along the Lincoln Highway.

Signs of Spring (3)

The presidential yard-sign count along Route 30 in central PA is holding steady at one sign for Obama and zero signs for Clinton. I guess everyone was too busy registering voters to put up many signs over the weekend.

Or perhaps there is little interest in the Democratic presidential contest among denizens of the Lincoln Highway. Other contests (all Republican) have yielded a forest of signs.

Signs for Republican PA legislative candidate Mike Rishel had been popping up slowly. Now they are everywhere, slowly being matched by his primary opponent, Will Tallman, who appears to have a large family.

A third GOP candidate for state senate, Jim Taylor, also is gaining ground. Nonetheless, he is still running far behind his rivals, Rich Alloway and Cathy Cresswell. Taylor’s support seems centered in New Oxford, while Alloway and Cresswell appear to own the rest of Adams County toward Gettysburg.

Signs of Spring (2)

The latest polls show Hillary Clinton gaining momentum in Pennsylvania. But the yard signs on Route 30 tell a different story. Her lone supporter appears to have had second thoughts and taken down the sign I saw last week. In its wake is a sign for Barack Obama in front of a house on the eastern edge of New Oxford. He now is in the lead, 1-0.

The sign is significant given that this stretch of highway is fairly hostile territory for any Democrat, let alone one facing his own Sistah Souljah moment. Is it just me or does Obama seem more like Bill Clinton circa ’92 every day?

The campaign that is drawing more attention along the Lincoln Highway pits Cathy Cresswell against Rich Alloway. The two Republicans are competing for a state Senate seat whose current occupant, Terry Punt, is retiring. The two candidates probably have more than three dozen signs along Route 30. Wherever one appears, the other is sure to follow.

Signs of spring

Observers have fingered a bunch of stats to determine who is leading in the presidential primary: Google searches, Facebook friends, Eventful demands, YouTube views, whatever. I have my own metric now to forecast who will win the Democratic primary in Pennsylvania on April 22: Yard signs along the 25-mile stretch of Route 30, the old Lincoln Highway, between Gettysburg and York.

The detail-minded might point out that this geographic slice of the Keystone State is in no way representative of anything. I agree. It is probably whiter, older and more rural-working class than the state as a whole. True. But there also are pockets of Hispanics in New Oxford and Abbottstown as well as a coffee shop in New Oxford– just the type of place Obama supporters apparently like to meet (business reporters take note).

If there actually are any Democrats in this part of the state, they probably support Clinton. So, the appearance of any signs for Obama can be construed as a positive indicator: he is making inroads into parts of the electorate that have been less fervent in supporting him.
So, without further ado, here is the count as of 1:16pm on March 11:

Hillary Clinton: 1

Barack Obama: 0

The Clinton sign appeared on a flat part of Route 30 west of the York Airport. Yes, York has an airport. The sign was on the south side of the road.